Thursday, June 16, 2011

Population growth to drive more compact housing | Inman News

Haven't had a second to read more than the most important of emails, let alone blog for the past month. Quick read on the summer rental market in downtown Manhattan: it is pretty busy out here! Most in demand seems to be 2+ bedroom 2+ bathroom apartments. Prices are definitely higher than last couple years. Why is this? Seems a lot of people are relocating to New York. The trend of selling a property and renting for a while is also holding on.

Not sure how much longer that will hold though. While the national press is trumpeting how home prices are the lowest they've been since the early 1990s, core New York is holding and even increasing. Studios are still the biggest challenge to sell. But if prices start to move up in unison, look for renters of large apartments to pull the trigger on buying first. Eventually people bent on buying will settle for as much space as they can get - meaning buyers hoping for a small 1 bedroom will be relegated back to studio apartments. There is hope yet for those little guys.

Here is a link to an interesting article:

Population growth to drive more compact housing

The idea of urban housing design is pretty interesting to me. Cities across the country continue to absorb population from smaller towns, as well as immigration from other countries. Cities are where jobs tend to be. And the cost of gas is making the far flung suburbs less popular. Urban Land Institute predicts (predictably if you see what's going on) that more people will move to cities. More people need more rental housing. And the largest increase is actually in one-person households, a fact I did not know. This means studios and one bedrooms will be in demand, and smaller apartments will be more popular.

Here in NYC, I'm not so sure. For a few years ending in 2008, 2 bedrooms were most sought after, as more and more families stay in the city. If smaller apartments are the norm here, then look for rents and sales prices for 2+ bedrooms to skyrocket.

Of course, this trend could take 3-5 years to play out. And it won't happen in a vacuum. There's a lot of news pointing to a downturn lately, but historically the stock market pulls back in the summer. A colleague said - and I tend to agree - that the NYC housing market depends less on what is happening in the rest of the country and much more on what is happening in the stock market.

Population growth to drive more compact housing | Inman News

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