New York's the Same, the World is Better, What's Going On?

I am no Wall Street guru, but I follow the market pretty closely these days, as well as economic indicators throughout the world. Here is what we've got going:   .

1) Interest rates made a rather large move (.25% not really a large move, but for bond traders it's a large move)

 2) Several large retailers - and today Cisco, which is like the GE of pure tech plays - have reported lower than expected 2nd quarter results (whose expectations? it's sort of an average taken across many investment firms' analysts' projections).

 3) Walmart also missed on revenues, though not earnings (earnings are the actual income reported after all expenses have been removed), and cut its own projections for the rest of the year.

 However, other things are not all bad! For instance:

 1) July unemployment nationwide FELL to 7.4%, the lowest since 2007 - that's a YEAR before the crap hit the fan in 2008. Remember that before the credit crunch caused by the failures of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, among many others. Many people forget that the downturn began in late 2004, when the first of the subprime mortgage crisis started to be felt.

 2) Europe, which caused an echo credit crunch on these shores as analysts scrambled to discern which of our multinational banks held how many Greek, Spanish, Irish, Cypriot, etc. bonds, has suddenly peaked its head out of the recession pit, according to the official statistics office of the European Union. China, too, has seen a slight rebound that is pulling materials and mining stocks up ever so slightly.

All that, plus lighter volume (which exaggerates price swings in an individual stock) made for a 200-point drop in the market today.

I watch the stock market because it seems to have more correlation to the real estate market in Manhattan (and increasingly, Brooklyn) than the markets in the rest of the country (which is why NYC's prices kept going up until almost the moment Bear Stearns went down). But it's hard to say what's the new normal here: the Dow made new highs nearly every week until April, had a correction in May, resumed upwards in June, and now in August (traditionally not a great month for the market) it's heading down again, mostly lazily but today in a more precipitous fashion. What will happen in September? What indeed? It's a soap opera that doesn't end.

My personal experience tells me that buyers are less likely to buy in New York when the market goes down. This might be because the buyer is actually employed in the financial industry, or it may be sympathetic concern, as most people in New York are at least cognizant of the market's moves, even if they aren't invested.

Dearth of buyers can lead to price drops, but only if there is a glut of properties relative to the number of buyers on the market. A quick glance at the live listings infographic provided by Urbandigs.com shows that active inventory (ie, properties currently listed for sale) has dropped nearly 20% in the past 3 months. In addition, properties in contract, after a huge 43% pop four to six months ago, has declined by 6% in the past three months. Finally, properties that have gone off market have increased over 15% in the past three months.

So, to summarize, fewer properties are on the market, at a rate that exceeds the drop in contracts signed. This means the inventory seems to be right-sizing itself. So, for the moment, prices in New York should remain unchanged.

We'll see how that works out when interest rates really begin to rise.

Being Green Means You're a Good Risk?

Found this very interesting article on Inman News that highlights a finding that owners of energy efficient homes are significantly less likely to default on their mortgages. Significant as in 32% less likely - that's one third safer than your typical borrower!

The group that conducted this study - The Institute for Market Transformation, a group I've never heard of before but I'm glad I discovered - states that given the statistical significance, the energy efficiency of a property should be considered as part of the risk evaluation when making a mortgage. In other words, it should be easier to get a mortgage on an Energy Star - rated home. This could mean several things for buyers - a lower interest rate or perhaps qualifying for a mortgage amount that you couldn't have qualified for before. For IMT, that translates to a hope that buyers will look more favorably on greener homes, not just for the lower energy bills, but perhaps for a lower cost of living in the long run, even if the purchase price is higher than a non-Energy Star rated home.

While the talked-about study only surveyed new purchase mortgages, the finding could also impact considerations for refinancings, particularly if the property in question has had green retrofit upgrades as well.

For home builders, there have been incentives such as tax credits for building greener housing for a long time, but the longtime budget impasse threatens these credits. Being able to offer homes that qualify for lower rates, and knowing that consumers will be seeking these homes out, may be the market-based incentive we need to keep building green housing.

This study only surveyed single family homes. Here in New York, even most of the single family housing dates from 1900 or before, and not much more is being built. However, I found another item on the IMT website showing Fannie Mae is taking a similar mortgage-friendly tack to get multi families on board with green retrofits. This building program relaxes debt service ratio requirements for landlords who are refinancing buildings and intend to put in green retrofits. Essentially, they can take out extra money to do the retrofits that the bank wouldn't have allowed them to have before.

I'm glad to see that amidst all the angry fingers pointing at "big government mandates", there is a market-based incentive (do something, get/save more money). And I'm even happier that it is aimed at multi-family buildings. Again, in NYC, many of the housing stock was built in the 1930s and 1940s and therefore doesn't have HVAC, and has oil or natural gas burning boilers, as well as often falls in the shadow of taller buildings that block out solar potential. This is something I want to know more about.

A Fan of All Seasons

In my readings I came across this article about ceiling fans which reminds me sometimes the best solutions are low-tech solutions. Ceiling fans are a great way to both save on energy costs and effective in circulating both hot and cold air around a room. Not just limited to the dusty long-bladed fans you see in deep South movie gas stations, ceiling fans are now a designer item, with fans to fit every decor, ceiling height and room size.

Obviously you get energy savings by using a ceiling fan instead of a room or central air conditioning unit, but did you know you can also use a ceiling fan to more effectively heat or cool a room while using a central heating or cooling unit?

That's right. By using a ceiling fan to circulate air, you also mix the air temperatures and even the temperatures out both vertically and horizontally. So a ceiling fan used properly (ie, you have to reverse the direction or change the fan blade angles) can be the difference between huddling near a heating vent and being comfortable anywhere in a room. And your energy bill comes down because you don't have to jack up (or down) the thermostat to reach every corner in the room.

For us city dwellers, the reality is that in pre-war buildings there is often no wiring in the ceilings for overhead lights, which is a prerequisite for ceiling fans. I'd encourage coop and condo owners considering making this upgrade to do so as it would have a double effect:  a more comfortable home AND a positive effect on home value (if I had a nickel for every prospective tenant or buyer who walked into a prewar and said "there's no overhead light in this room ?!?").  I include my own art deco era living room here (although, NYC newbies, I've managed for 12 years with torchiere floor lamps). The high ceilings were just made for them.  Don't like 'em?  Spring for the overhead wiring. No one ever said living in New York was easy (and if you can make it here....)

666 Park Ave - NYC Real Estate Beware

I sometimes do background work on films and tv shows that shoot around New York City, so when I got the notices for a show called 666 Park Ave, I thought "wow, this sounds like a schlocky horror movie". Then I saw the previews:



Hmm, crossing NYC real estate with a ghost story. It looks sexy and fun! The premiere is September 30. I am really looking forward to seeing it. In the meantime, I'll stick to my downtown Village ghosts. Those Upper East Side ghosts are too fancy for me!

2012 May Be the Year of the Starter Apartment

So the headlines of the last nearly 2 years have been how luxury homes (over $5 million) just don't seem to be slowing down... until they kind of have. I mean, at the very top end people will always have the money to buy. But now, according to a couple articles, family sized apartment sales have been slowing down.

Instead, it looks like the little guy is finally feeling a little more confident, and smaller starter homes are starting to finally move on the market.  It may not be all about the want to invest however, as Manhattan rents are starting to fly skyhigh again. All you renters, that means you don't have 48-72 hours to "think over" apartments. February, a traditionally slow month, saw very high rental activity.

When you're out shopping for apartments, you need your previous year's tax returns and/or W-2s, letter from your employer showing salary and tenure, 2-3 consecutive paycheck stubs, and bank statements showing enough reserves to pay all the move in costs (please don't send a checking account statement showing only $50; you are trying to prove you are financially qualified to pay rent monthly!). You may also need a copy of your ID, a reference or previous lease from your current landlord. Forewarned is forearmed: I would have quite a fortune if I were given a commission for every renter who missed out on an apartment they loved because they didn't take my advice and have all their paperwork close to hand.